Escalation in the Middle East: a humanitarian crisis under strain

Series : The Root Causes of Migration 

The escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to destabilise a region already affected by prolonged crises. In a recent situation report, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) warns of a rapid deterioration in the security and humanitarian situation, which could lead to mass population displacement if no preventive action is taken.

A picture showing the difficult situation in Lebanon, source : free picture from NRC (Norwegian Refugee Council)

At this stage, no large-scale cross-border movements have been observed. However, the situation is evolving rapidly, particularly in Iran, where the consequences of the conflict are already significant. More than 115,000 civilian infrastructure sites are reported to have been damaged, and up to one million internal displacements may be linked to the current instability, directly affecting around 250,000 people. This situation reflects growing pressure on civilian populations, who are forced to flee the insecurity.

In neighbouring countries, the effects of this escalation are also beginning to be felt. Lebanon and Syria are facing significant pressure from displacement, whilst Afghanistan is emerging as a major transit corridor. Other countries, such as Iraq, Pakistan and Turkey, are seeing emerging flows, indicating a risk of the crisis spreading across the region.

The situation is particularly worrying in Lebanon, where more than a million people have been displaced. The majority of them are living outside official reception facilities, often in precarious conditions, without adequate access to essential services such as housing, healthcare or psychosocial support. Humanitarian needs there are considerable and constantly growing.

Furthermore, conditions at the borders, particularly between Lebanon and Syria, are deteriorating. Temporary closures and security threats are disrupting access to services for people on the move, further complicating the humanitarian response.

In response to this situation, the IOM is carrying out operations in several countries to provide emergency assistance. This includes the distribution of financial aid, access to healthcare, logistical support and assistance for vulnerable migrants. Efforts are also being made to organise the return of foreign nationals stranded in the affected areas.

However, beyond the immediate emergency, the organisation stresses the need to strengthen mechanisms for monitoring displacement and early warning systems. In such a volatile context, these tools are essential for anticipating developments and adapting humanitarian responses.

Whilst the situation remains uncertain, humanitarian organisations are calling for a quick and coordinated response. Without increased resources and proactive action, the crisis could escalate and have repercussions far beyond the areas currently affected.

The full report can be found here: https://crisisresponse.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1481/files/uploaded-files/Escalation-in-the-Middle-East-and-Beyond-External-Sitrep-7.pdf